Tabloid Baby pal contributor and columnist Dr. Franklin Ruehl, Ph.D. is more than a music video star: he's a nuclear physicist and lecturer with a Ph.D from UCLA and his mind on even loftier matters than the music videos he's most recently starred in ("Coincidentally, I just shot another music video last night playing a janitor, and portrayed a teacher in another one last month!" the Doctor writes us this afternoon). In the thick of the political season, the Doctor turns his attention to the electoral process-- in this case Super Tuesday. (Tuesday, February 5th. Tuesday a week ago. Not yesterday's Mini Tuesday. Oh well, better late than never, we'd say):
Super Tuesday Was A Super Deception!
by Dr. Franklin Ruehl, Ph.D
by Dr. Franklin Ruehl, Ph.D
It is absolutely absurd that Sen. John McCain nearly has the Republican nomination for President wrapped up based on the 21 primaries held on Super Tuesday! In only three of the primaries did he manage to exceed 50% of the vote (led by 55% in New Jersey, 52% in Connecticut, and 51% in New York). Indeed, he scored only 47% in his home state of Arizona! But because 17 of those primaries invoked a winner-take-all format, he was able to snare a majority of the delegates.
For example, McCain beat Gov. Mike Huckabee by only a mere percentage point in Missouri (33% to 32%), yet garnered all 58 of that state's delegates. Overall, McCain grabbed some 601 delegates on Super Tuesday compared to 176 for Gov. Mitt Romney and 142 for Huckabee. In order to determine what the delegate breakdown would have been in the fairer method of proportional distribution utilized in the Democratic primaries, I have recalculated the delegate numbers, based on the percentage of votes secured by each candidate.
The following chart shows that McCain and Romney would have been in a virtual tie, with McCain accruing 330 (losing 271) versus Romney's 323 (gaining 147), and Huckabee at 179 (gaining a modest 37).
Candidate Winner-take-all / Proportional
McCain 601/330
Romney 176/323
Huckabee 142/179
The totals differ slightly, as some delegates would have been assigned to other candidates, such as Ron Paul and Rudy Giuliani, but if proportional distribution had been in effect, the Republican contest would indeed be a hot race today. Of course, each party has the right to determine how to apportion votes and assign delegates, but the winner-take-all method is clearly unfair.
Had the Democrats invoked the winner-take-all approach instead of proportional distribution of delegates, Sen. Hillary Clinton would be clearly outdistancing Sen. Barack Obama, based on her winning the majority in the delegate-rich states of New York and California.
The following chart is indicative of those results:
Candidate Proportional / Winner-take-all
Clinton 739/928
Obama 679/508
For the record, I was shocked, absolutely shocked, that both Senators John Edwards and Giuliani dropped out just a week before Super Tuesday, showing they had no fighting spirit.
Both men would have been expected to pursue their quest for at least another week, considering the geographical distribution of the primaries involved and the fact that many voters would have wanted a choice other than the frontrunners. Edwards certainly would have accrued delegates based on proportional representation. While it would have been tougher for Giuliani with the winner-take-all format, he was still a viable candidate. True, he blundered in focusing on the Florida primary and taking himself out of the national picture by not actively campaigning in Iowa and New Hampshire. But considering how quickly he lost his lead, it was certainly feasible that he, too, as McCain did, could stage a comeback with several months to go before the national convention.
Now I am going out on a limb with a prediction that I have not heard anyone else make and assert that Al Gore will be the ultimate candidate for the Dems, being drafted by the party to break a deadlock between Clinton and Obama at the convention.
Gore certainly has the credentials, and winning the Nobel Prize has definitely enhanced his pedigree and kept him in the national spotlight. While he has denied having any aspirations to the Presidency, I suspect that he still dreams of it, and what better way to bring his environmental plans to fruition than as holder of that highest office.
May the Power of the Cosmos be with You!
Dr. Franklin Ruehl, Ph.D.
For example, McCain beat Gov. Mike Huckabee by only a mere percentage point in Missouri (33% to 32%), yet garnered all 58 of that state's delegates. Overall, McCain grabbed some 601 delegates on Super Tuesday compared to 176 for Gov. Mitt Romney and 142 for Huckabee. In order to determine what the delegate breakdown would have been in the fairer method of proportional distribution utilized in the Democratic primaries, I have recalculated the delegate numbers, based on the percentage of votes secured by each candidate.The following chart shows that McCain and Romney would have been in a virtual tie, with McCain accruing 330 (losing 271) versus Romney's 323 (gaining 147), and Huckabee at 179 (gaining a modest 37).
Candidate Winner-take-all / Proportional
McCain 601/330
Romney 176/323
Huckabee 142/179
The totals differ slightly, as some delegates would have been assigned to other candidates, such as Ron Paul and Rudy Giuliani, but if proportional distribution had been in effect, the Republican contest would indeed be a hot race today. Of course, each party has the right to determine how to apportion votes and assign delegates, but the winner-take-all method is clearly unfair.
Had the Democrats invoked the winner-take-all approach instead of proportional distribution of delegates, Sen. Hillary Clinton would be clearly outdistancing Sen. Barack Obama, based on her winning the majority in the delegate-rich states of New York and California.The following chart is indicative of those results:
Candidate Proportional / Winner-take-all
Clinton 739/928
Obama 679/508
For the record, I was shocked, absolutely shocked, that both Senators John Edwards and Giuliani dropped out just a week before Super Tuesday, showing they had no fighting spirit.
Both men would have been expected to pursue their quest for at least another week, considering the geographical distribution of the primaries involved and the fact that many voters would have wanted a choice other than the frontrunners. Edwards certainly would have accrued delegates based on proportional representation. While it would have been tougher for Giuliani with the winner-take-all format, he was still a viable candidate. True, he blundered in focusing on the Florida primary and taking himself out of the national picture by not actively campaigning in Iowa and New Hampshire. But considering how quickly he lost his lead, it was certainly feasible that he, too, as McCain did, could stage a comeback with several months to go before the national convention.
Now I am going out on a limb with a prediction that I have not heard anyone else make and assert that Al Gore will be the ultimate candidate for the Dems, being drafted by the party to break a deadlock between Clinton and Obama at the convention.Gore certainly has the credentials, and winning the Nobel Prize has definitely enhanced his pedigree and kept him in the national spotlight. While he has denied having any aspirations to the Presidency, I suspect that he still dreams of it, and what better way to bring his environmental plans to fruition than as holder of that highest office.
May the Power of the Cosmos be with You!
Dr. Franklin Ruehl, Ph.D.
Thanks, Doc! Next stop: The Democrats' "Super Delegate" scam that quietly keeps the Presidential candidate-making power in the hands of the elite!
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